November 7: Toss-up races projected. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. File history. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). 26th February 2023. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Full election results. See the rest of our predictions. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. All 435 districts were up for election. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. RCP House Map Race Changes. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. [1] The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. All 435 districts were up for election. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. All Rights Reserved. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. The party gained a net of nine districts. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. California. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. Visit. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. File usage on Commons. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. : 424 600 pixels 2022 election Predictions, state Pages, Special elections seat loss has been 27! 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